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  • Writer's pictureMartin Blake

Twelve Days of Christmas – Predictions for 2023

2022 was a year of tumult. Will the consequences include a global recession in 2023?

This year has been a year of change and opportunity for me, as I have transitioned to a ‘portfolio career’ after leaving KPMG Australia as a Partner after 28 years in December 2021.

Between spending five months in London sorting out my mother’s estate, I had a number of meetings in Australia House and Number 10 Downing St and watched in astonishment as the UK had three Prime Ministers in a year and HRH QEII passed away shortly after her Platinum Jubilee celebrations. Meanwhile in Australia, 8 months of rate rises saw cash rates going from 0.1% to 3.1% in the fastest tightening cycle in a generation.


After the tumult of 2022, a global recession is surely inevitable, with the outlook looking challenging for many around the world. Why?

  • Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the biggest land war in Europe since 1945 and the most serious nuclear threat since the Cuban Missile Crisis

  • Leaders are grappling with the unpredictability of the impact of the conflict on geopolitics, supply chains and security

  • Hawkish central banks have imposed dramatic increases in rates as they struggle to control inflationwhich threaten to crash housing and employment markets

  • There has been chaos in energy markets, with dramatically higher energy prices hurting business, consumers and the most vulnerable in society

  • China faces an uncertain economic future, with Xi Jinping, the “helmsman” warning party leaders to “be ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms”

In my 38-year career I have experienced first-hand a number of bear markets and have observed that, in tough times, leaders need “to loosen up and not tighten up”.

The 13th edition of my 12 Days of Christmas Predictions shines a light-hearted torch on where I see opportunities for the “nimble, smart and brave” in 2023. Perhaps the most profound trend I predict, with these recent upheavals, is the recognition that it’s time to “rephrase” how organisations work. In 2023, organisations will do well by doing good for their own employees and for the broader world around them.

Wishing you and your family a very Happy Christmas and a safe and restful break over the festive season. I look forward to connecting with you to discuss the “Art of the Possible” in 2023.




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